football outsiders playoff odds
The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation. Detroit's loss on Monday night was devastating, as . This is not a paywall*! Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. The quarterbacks are fine and close to the same level. The top three schedules of offenses faced so far belong to the Steelers, Chargers and Bills. The Bears got a bump in their odds (+5.8%) after the victory over the Lions on Sunday. Photo: USA Today Sports Images. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns' odds of making the playoffs are up from 2.7 percent a week ago to 4.4 percent today. It should go without saying that Tomlin would scoff at Football Outsiders' futile attempts at calculating playoff odds two games into the season, and nobody would judge you if you chose to do so . They had better National Championship odds than USC, who was not considered a CFP team according to those odds. In reply to It's possible that the Jets by davelew. This is not a paywall*! TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion. The Horned Frogs are +7.5 underdogs in the semifinals, and then would be underdogs against Ohio State or Georgia. NFL Playoff Odds, Fringe Teams Odds as of Dec. 8 3 Week 14 Games That Will Swing NFL Playoff Chances Vikings At Lions Vikings current seed: 2nd For one, we know he will officially be without one of his favorite receivers. Alliteration! 1 RB for 2023, commits to TAMU, CBS Sports All-America Team: Big Ten dominates. The following table shares the Fremeau Efficiency Index rankings . If this is going to happen, C.J. The Raiders had 44.0% DVOA for the win, and the Broncos had -58.5% DVOA for the loss. All they had to do was beat the Utah Utes in the Pac-12 Championship. Log in Projected Point Difference noted with Green/Yellow/Red BREAKING: The four Heisman finalists have been announced.-Caleb Williams-Max Duggan-CJ Stroud-Stetson Bennett pic.twitter.com/rVE7bDrHWG. The betting windows are open. They've played the third-hardest overall defensive schedule so far (third-hardest pass defense and hardest run defense as stated above). What can we expect from Stroud against Georgia? After starting the year with a league-best 41.1% offensive DVOA, the Ravens only have played one game with an offensive DVOA above 20% and two games with a DVOA above 10%. So the Chargers go from playing a schedule that's been very easy for their offense and hard for their defense to a schedule that will be very easy for their passing game and defense but hard for their running game. But sometimes gambling advice is subjective. Reaching the Conference Championship Game. 5 schedule of opposing offenses so far. Interestingly, the fringe AFC teams have future schedules in the exact inverse order of their DVOA rankings. Could be some really bad times coming for Viking fans in the next few years. . The Chargers have played the easiest schedule of pass defenses so far, averaging 11.1% DVOA. I think this team has a floor of 2-4 to finish the season and a ceiling of 6-0. . I'm shocked that the Patriots get 60% DVOA for their game against the Jets. The beatings will continue until Minnesota's DVOA improves. The Patriots for this game: -10% offense, -60% defense, +10% special teams. NFL Week 11 - Some big games lead to some big moves up the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings table this week. To be fair, I am over 50 years oldat heart. Click here for the full table. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 13 weeks of 2022, . They play the No. This year Georgia has a target on their backs going into New Years Eve. The company is planning a massive billion-dollar renovation of Station Casinos has acquired a 67-acre land at Losee Road with plans to build a new casino resort. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. Filtering by Week 11 LAR WRs yielded no results. Are the writers over 50 years old and still living the days of early 90s? When Strouds No. Then finishing with 3 wins gets us back to 95%. 1d ago. We're sorry, residents of your region are not accepted by this gambling site! Photo: USA Today Sports Images. Indianapolis DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Matt Ryan. NFC playoff clinching and elimination scenarios for Week 14 December football brings division and playoff-clinching scenarios for some teams and elimination scenarios for others. TCU does not have a defense that competes with the other three teams. He struggled to figure out the Michigan defense last year. In reply to Detroit has climbed into the by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. As a result of the loss, Ohio State is on the College Football Playoff odds board. 2 Michigan and No. 28 schedule the rest of the way, much easier. Michigan should make it more competitive than a 34-11 loss in their semifinals meeting last New Year's Eve. In reply to Keep in mind, the steadiest by Aaron Brooks G. Here's a look at some other teams on the extremes or about to have a real change in the quality of their opponents on one side of the ball or the other: The New York Jets have faced the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses so far this year. I just can't figure out what DVOA sees in the Packers offense to say it's the 9th best. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of. The most well-rounded teams this season have been Georgia and Michigan. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? Opponent adjustments are now at full strength. Brown. TheSportsGeek looks to add +3.5SPREAD -110ODDS OUR PICK CHARGERS PLACE BET! Don't be surprised if the offense improves in terms of points scored or aesthetics from here out and we start hearing narratives about the young receivers starting to figure it out. As of this week, we are now posting DVOA data on Monday instead of waiting until Tuesday as in the past. But playing in a dome, Folk is likely to kick 5 to 6 40-yard field goals to give NE enough points to not have to rely on a last minute punt return TD to score. Take an offense that relies on the more time consuming run, and a defense that can't stop the time consuming run and you get this team. But some of those big wins weren't quite so big on the scoreboard. Their remaining opponents rank 30th in pass defense. They drafted Moss the next season and they pretty good for a few years. That said, Tampa Bay's playbook is terribly inefficient despite that pace, ranked 21st in EPA per play. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns rank 14th in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and weighted DVOA. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. However, the biggest concern for TCU has to be how to stop Donovan Edwards. Filtering by Week 11 QBs, without any team filters, yielded only SF and ARI QBs. 1 seed, and a much slimmer possibility they slip to a lower Wild Card slot. I'd argue the D should be even better considering some of the names they have, but Joe Barry is excelling in having them perform as lesser than the sum of their parts. The schedule also gets harder for the Giants (26 so far, 2 to go) and the Raiders (23 so far, 3 to go). ( DVOA ratings are explained here .) However, this offense has not played a unit like the Wolverines. Rodgers has also flat out missed the throw on several broken plays where a receiver has worked themselves open too. 3 TCU. Why would writers being 49ers fans matter? The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. One other victory that might be a bit larger than expected belongs to the Las Vegas Raiders, who beat Denver 22-16 in overtime. Georgia should advance for their second straight appearance in the National Championship. 6 sacks for 48 yards will do that, I suppose. I bought into the LaFleur scheme enough that I thought something like that "hot receiver rotation" could happen, and that this year's schedule was soft enough that they would still be in the 11-13 win range. 1 target is covered, he has issues working through his progressions. Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. December 5, 2022 6:09 pm ET. 3 TCU will tee it up in Glendale, Arizona, in the Fiesta Bowl. San Francisco's two best offensive performances of the year have come in the last three games. Georgia beat Michigan and then Alabama in the 2021-22 CFP Championship last year. They are in after finishing 12-1, with a loss in the Big 12 Championship. And a good thing it is for NE, too, as their offense continues to struggle with the impenetrable barrier that is the opponent's 30-yard line. Why? AFC playoff projections 1. In reply to Worst 8-2 Teams by Jimmytossinbeachble. Odell Beckham Jr. during his free agency visit with the Dallas Cowboys. I'm with you, life has really gotten in the way of me watching the games live and commenting here, but when I've watched replays it's just been so meh. Per Football Outsiders, Pittsburgh has just a 1% chance of claiming a division title and a 6.1% shot at making the playoffs. We have the latest College Football Playoff odds and best CFP predictions. Football Outsiders' model is less bullish on the Chargers, giving them a 16.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, down from 29.7 percent heading into Week 13. NCAA Conference Championship - The big news we've expected for a while is now official, as college football's FBS level is going to a 12-team playoff beginning with the 2024 season. In reply to To be fair, I am over 50 by Bryan Knowles. Not all possible Super Bowls are listed. It's a longshot, but in the grand . MORE: The 49ers Skyrocket in Latest Power Rankings The Cowboys have a 78.1% chance to stick in that fifth spot, according to Football Outsiders ' playoff odds. It's no surprise that the top two seeds are favored, as both Georgia and Michigan . The Trojans were +1000 to win the college football championship going into the Pac-12 Championship Game. (Could be faulty memory, but sure feels like the weekly DVOA article would typically have many more comments than this by now! Football Outsiders gives the Bills a 73.1% chance to win the division. Here's where Football Outsiders has their chances after four weeks: Playoffs: 15.5% Division: 10% Super Bowl: 0.2% The Bears' 0.2% chance at winning the Super Bowl is tied with the Steelers and Dolphins for the 25th "best" odds in the league. The Vikings have played the No. Our AI predicts that the Utah Jazz will Lakers title odds improve as the team is starting to play better. A reminder that all our free stats pages, including DVOA and player position stats, require registration to view. Expect the defensive pressure to get to Stroud, as well. I don't remember Dallas matering to 49ers in the last two decades. USC was going to the College Football Playoff. They should be fine against the Vikings this week, though. I've been having trouble getting to the site recently, don't know if it has been on my end or theirs, but it wouldn't shock me if comments are down the last few days. New England Patriots. Updated Football Outsiders playoff odds! Cowboys qualify for 2017-18 NFL Playoffs Yes +1500 No -6000. We are not able to verify the legality of the information we provide, or your ability to use any sites that are linked to on this site, for every combination of your location, the sites location, and the type of service those sites provide. Alabama had the better odds throughout the season. Max Duggan and the TCU are capable of moving the ball. This leaves Marvin Harrison Jr. alone as the only receiver that can beat the Georgia defense. Oddsmakers clearly think that this will be semifinal that isn't that competitive -- something that has happened quite often in the CFP era. Let's start with the obvious big wins. The Chargers' schedule is even more fun when you look at the offenses they face. The 2022-23 College Football Playoff picture is complete after a thrilling weekend of conference championship football. Thanks for posting, I definitely find these weekly updates interesting. And although NE's pass rush isn't as good as Dallas', unless the Vikings miraculously fixed their OL woes in 5 days, Cousins is likely be facing more of the same in terms of constant pressure. The lines will certainly move between now and New Year's Eve based on a variety of factors, and it'll be interesting to see how things progress during the layoff. Your email address will not be published. Welcome to the Schatz & Tanier show for NFL Week 14! Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? The College Football Playoff odds have the Georgia Bulldogs as the favorites to win. On October 25, the 49ers' odds of making the playoffs were 20% per ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), 27% per Football Outsiders, and only 16% on 538. The oddsmakers view the matchup between the Bulldogs and Buckeyes as the closer of the two games. Football Outsiders playoff odds, snap counts, and the FO+ database are now all updated through Week 13. Week 14 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday with a matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders (-6, 44.5) and Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. Comparing their schedule so far to their remaining schedule is absolutely wild. We have the latest College Football Playoff odds and best CFP predictions. If we leave out the Broncos in Week 18, the Chargers have the hardest remaining schedule of opposing run defenses. Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines are a perfect 13-0 after beating the Iowa Hawkeyes for the Big Ten Championship. They also had what seems like a very poor draft. Winning the division I don't see, but I can envision them beating out the Giants for the last playoff spot. The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. Michigan is a juggernaut, though. Cine was injured, but couldn't get on the field before the injury, Booth looks horrendous, and the only drafted player getting any playing time, Ingram (G) is really bad. document.getElementById( "ak_js" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. 2 Michigan (-9.5) vs. No. That moves the Cowboys up from fourth to second in DVOA. It is the first playoff for the TCU Horned Frogs. So far, only the Pittsburgh Steelers have faced a harder schedule of opposing offenses. Here are the Packers' playoff odds from various sites: FiveThirtyEight: 6 percent Football Outsiders: 8.6 percent New York Times: 11 percent ESPN FPI: 5.0 percent Playoff Status: 3.0. If you want to see data from the current season on Monday, including all of Sunday's games, you will need to be an FO+ subscriber. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. After a sloppy win, but win nonetheless, against the Houston Texans, the Cleveland Browns saw their playoff odds take a slight bump. The Jets drop from ninth to 13th. Football Outsiders ranks Miami at No. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. Betting analyst Brandon Anderson makes his early picks for the Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL playoffs below. So the Bucs are still the favorite to win the division, despite a 3-5 record and being a game behind Atlanta. Before breaking down each of these categories, we've got to talk about the Los Angeles Chargers. While you're at it, you can get a seven-day trial of FO+ and check out the FO+ features like a deeper DVOA database, weekly fantasy projections, fantasy football research tools, Derrik Klassen's All-32 game preview column, and picks against the spread (now including projected totals for over/unders). Perhaps this is somewhat related to the astounding dissonance between conventional passer rating (104.6) and QBR (20.4) for Mac Jones. The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. Georgia survives, but the Wolverines will be ready to play this time. This comes with one last game before the NFL trade deadline on Nov. 2 . Aaron Schatz, Vince Verhei, and Bryan Knowles are here to share some of the most surprising, mind-boggling, and outright embarrassing statistics through Week 13 of the 2022 NFL regular season. The hardest schedule of run defenses so far belongs to the Packers, who have an average schedule the rest of the way. Our total DVOA stats page lists each team's remaining schedule based on average DVOA of opponent. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. NFL Week 14 - With five weeks to go, all 14 playoff spots are still up for grabs. 28 schedule of opposing pass defenses. You only need to register (for free) and then log in to the site to view these pages. They. VOA often matches the eye test better than DVOA, especially when you don't have time, or camera angles, to really see what was going on. Mac Jones' QBR is probably very low because he was heavily dependent on YAC. Ohio State has a tough matchup in the semifinals against Georgia. The four-team College Football Playoff is set, and it will consist of Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Ohio State. The run game has been very good at times though, just not always used in the best situations so it doesn't help win chances. The College Football Playoff had some hard decisions to make after USC and TCU lost, but they got it right. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. It looks like Week 11 snap count data may have been added for SF/ARI, but not other games: Detroit has climbed into the top half of the league by DVOA! Wilson, who the Pats have played twice, is hardly a 'pocket passer'. That will generate the new narrative. However, the Buckeyes can still win the biggest prize of all in the College Football Playoff. These statistics are complete from 1984 to 2021 and will be updated weekly throughout the 2022 NFL season. (Nevertheless, the playoff odds report still gives Philadelphia a 75% chance to win.). Pittsburgh DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of T.J. Watt. So again as mentioned by others if Watson/Doubs/Watkins when off IR/Lazard can just rotate games where one of them actually does reliably get open so 15-25 yard passes can happen a couple times a game you are back to 2019 or 2021 offensive production. The five teams with the easiest run defense schedules so far all have top-10 run defense schedules from now through Week 17. 1 in weighted DVOA, which lowers the importance of early-season games. San Francisco DAVE has a large adjustment for Brock Purdy as the starting quarterback but assumes that Jimmy Garoppolo will return for the playoffs. Defense is similar, 11th in pass VOA, 28th in run VOA. They're 9th in offensive DVOA, but only 15th in VOA. Cousins is exactly the type of QB this year's Pats defense is eating alive. pic.twitter.com/YKBLpG8oJn. Michigan is rated highly in the secondary and at the line against the run. 6-keys: media/spln/collegefootball/reg/free/stories, at Blake Corum is not playing, but Edwards should run the distance. Mayfield rallied the Fertitta Entertainment has closed its acquisition of Wildwood Casino in Cripple Creek, Colorado. Saints vs. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. On most sites, a Dallas Cowboys headline will get you extra traffic/comments. 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Jacobs (+1800) and Adams (+5000) also have the seventh- and eighth-shortest odds to win Offensive Player of Year. BACK-TO-BACK.No. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? It is worth mentioning that this is the second last season with a four-team College Football Playoff. Stetson Bennett should have his usual steady performance. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). It would have been an entertaining 4th quarter, with Williams likely pulling more magic out of his hat. There are not too many differences between Georgia and Michigan, but the Bulldogs do everything just a bit better than the Wolverines. Here are the early odds for the national semifinals courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: collegefootball | pageType: stories | 2? If you suck at drafting, there's little point to tearing it down. TCU and Ohio State may not be perfect, but their resumes are still better than Alabama. It's almost all defense, even after adjusting for the Jets offense. That starts with the Chiefs (2 so far, 23 to go) but also the Rams (6 so far, 32 to go), the Cardinals (9 so far, 29 to go), and the Saints (10 so far, 28 to go). It'll be fascinating to see what happens on the odds board with both of these matchups over the next month. TheSportsGeek has our predictions for the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl. #Seahawks +17.7% #TakeFlight +15.8% #GoBucs +11.0% Your email address will not be published. NFL Week 14 - Welcome to the NFL Week 14 Football Outsiders Data Show! At least if you look at it from the College Football Playoff odds before the conference championships. It also uses ESPN's Football Power Index and the committee's rankings to forecast teams' chances of winning. Jacobs' props are 89.5 rushing yards and 20.5 receiving yards, while Adams . Stroud has to learn to read a good defense quickly. Get pressure on Stroud and he develops happy feet in the pocket. The reason FO comment boards don't care about Dallas is because they have not had any real success since 1995. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. The New York Times gives the Bills an 80% chance to win the . Subscribe Now Get all the features and proprietary analytics you can't get anywhere else. Can TCU get this done and pull off a big upset? We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. 4 Ohio State in the Peach Bowl national semifinal, and No. TCU is the most unlikely team to win the four-team tournament. This is the playoffs, though, and everyone is even now. The rest of the way, it ranks second. The Lakers went 8-2 SU before losing their last two Hard Rock International unveiled the new renderings for the redesign of The Mirage. They also have the Vikings with a 42.2 percent chance of getting. 1 @GeorgiaFootball pic.twitter.com/YNb89sMriY. Do we have a rematch between Ohio State and Michigan coming up? 2004-2022 CBS Interactive. This is not a suggestion to pick up Zach Wilson in fantasy football, but you will notice he's got a huge gap between his passing DYAR and YAR on our passing stats page. Should make an exciting race. That's up from 25.2% last week. An Aaron Rodgers fantasy football comeback, perhaps? Change from Last Week = no change Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight. The FINAL top-25 CFP rankings Where did your team land? 4 USC to win their second consecutive Pac-12 Championship. The Patriots ended up with a PGWE of 99.9%, and even if you remove the punt return touchdown they still have PGWE of 98%. Then we are going to make our prediction for the college football National Championship. On the other hand, those teams had much higher DVOA than this year's Vikings, who are way in last place now. The Bulldogs are the favorites on the College Football Playoff betting odds board. Without Week 1, the Dallas offense would move from 14th to seventh in DVOA. Meanwhile, Ohio State is coming off of a blowout home loss to rival Michigan. With 7 games remaining, can they hold off GB and catch MIN for the NFC North title? San Francisco is currently 11th on offense and seventh on defense. The Raiders outgained the Broncos 6.6 yards per play to 5.2 and the Broncos fumbled twice but recovered both. From Week 12 to 17, they face the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses. The 2022 version of the Vikings seem more like the 2000 Vikings, a team who's run was up and ready for a big crash starting with 41-0 zip loss the NYG in NFC Championship. As for this division, the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation actually has Seattle as a small favorite to win the NFC West right now, so I'm definitely not taking the 49ers at -220. Their backs are against the wall. The college football regular season is in the books and we are on to the conference championships. NFL Week 14 - Compiled by Vincent Verhei. In reply to A better question would be by KnotMe. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. 20th in D and 29th on ST passes the smell test because that's about the usual every year, no matter what. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. So we don't always see how the good defenses are impacting things, just that they don't look good, which is closer to what raw VOA measures. All of this is possible, but at some point, when multiple teams only manage a single field goal or less and no touchdowns, the evidence starts to point to the NE defense being pretty good. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) The Horned Frogs plowed through arguably the toughest schedule in major college football and found ways to get it done in a variety of different ways. The 49ers offense looks better if you take out the Week 1 game played in a monsoon against the Bears with Trey Lance at quarterback instead of Jimmy Garoppolo. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. However, it's also possible to split up remaining schedules by offense and defense or pass and run to see which teams and units might look better or worse over the rest of the season thanks to who's on the other side of the field. Do not be surprised to see these two in the College Football Championship. Perhaps there's a learning curve on that front. They are outsiders without much confidence behind the Horned Frogs. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. Michigan and Ohio State have considerably better odds to win the college football championship. 1 Georgia (-7) vs. No. They also had what seems like a very poor draft. How many college football bowl games are there in 2022-23? The Wolverines should be too physical for TCU. Cin(10-1), NE(11-6), NYJ(13-12), LAC(22-32!) The Cardinals drop from 29th to 31st. There are trends becoming more obvious with every week, and every week presents new bargains for us to acquire in our leagues to fortify our lineups ready for that big push. I wish I could find the reference for unbalanced teams (it was mentioned recently IIRC, but search failed me), but the pats -19.7%(1) defense and -12.8%(26) offence combo, while not quite historic, the 32.5% DVOA difference was pretty up there. 1 Georgia will look to defend its national championship against No. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 11 weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here ). This week's match up against the Bills is going to be tough, but after that they have Jacksonville, the Jets and Carolina, as well as one game remaining with each of their divisional opponents. That would be the New England Patriots, even though they needed a last-second punt return touchdown to avoid going to overtime with the New York Jets. No. It's also possible that the Colts last week had a bad game when they only scored 3 points against NE despite averaging 16 points per game. It's possible that the Lions had a bad game and didn't score at all against NE despite scoring 45 points the week before and averaging 25 points per game. Miami DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Tua Tagovailoa. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Another big winner for Week 11 was the Dallas Cowboys, with 73.5% DVOA for a 40-3 stomping of the Minnesota Vikings. Teams in the hunt with at least five wins are listed. trusting the scheme got them open) and the receiver wasn't there for various reasons (wrong option break, route a bit sloppier and hence slower). On the other hand, Jones only rated 50 DYAR in the Quick Reads column, so it isn't like FO's stats loved his play. They also ran more plays, 59 to 49, meaning that in total they outgained the Jets by nearly 200 yards. If the game was being played outdoors, the Vikings might still have a chance. Cowboys Doubt Odell Beckham Will Play in 2022. The game kicks off at 1 pm ET. 1 seed. The playoffs will expand to a 12-team format beginning in 2024-25. In fact, the losers of these games may have moved down even more than the winners moved up. If they do end up at #5, the Cowboys would be likely facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers unless they crumble and lose the division. Current SB favorites: #BillsMafia 24.5% #FlyEaglesFly 19.8% #RavensFlock 9.4% #GoBucs 7.3% #ChiefsKingdom 6.6% #GoPackGo 5.1% #DallasCowboys 4.1%. The Miami Dolphins will look to keep pace in a tight AFC East divisional race -9.5SPREAD +100ODDS OUR PICK BILLS PLACE BET! The last time we saw them, they were chased off the field at the Horseshoe in Columbus. Likeliest foe in the first playoff game? This will be the first time ever in College Football Playoff history that Clemson and Alabama are both left out of the playoffs. #FTTB https . The 2022-23 College Football Playoff picture is complete after a thrilling weekend of conference championship football. The Cincinnati Bengals have by far the hardest remaining schedule, followed by the Bears and Jaguars. Heisman Trophy favorite, Caleb Williams, tore his hamstring on a long run early in the game. "The New York Jets have faced the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses so far this year.". I watched large parts of it and it felt pretty horrible. NFL Week 13 - Following a series of free agency visits, there is now speculation as to whether wide receiver Odell Beckham jr. will be able to make an impact on the . 1. It was the same this year in 2022 at home. They do everything right offensively and defensively. The Horned Frogs went from afterthought to undefeated regular-season power over the last three months and will take on a Wolverines team that is undefeated and riding high after their second straight Big Ten title. Ohio State was listed as the third favorite to win the College Football Playoff before the Pac-12 Championship Game at +800. Keep in mind, the steadiest writers are Eagles and 49ers fans -- so this site has some ingrained loathing for the Cowboys. Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. That includes the Seahawks (31 so far, 5 to go), the 49ers (30 so far, 7 to go), the Jaguars (29 so far, 9 to go), and the Falcons (28 so far, 6 to go). When looking at seeding, remember seven teams from each conference make the playoffs. To best of knowledge you are the only 49ers fan at FO staff. Add to that the org cut 3 3rd rounders from 2021 draft already. The talent is there for the Buckeyes, but perhaps more importantly, they'll have a month off to prepare and get healthy -- particularly at running back. They do this every week, and they arrive at the projections by running the season 10,000 times. They entered today with a 74.6% chance at the postseason by Football Outsiders' playoff odds report, and odds are that number is only going to go up. Baltimore (6 so far, 25 to go) and Washington (9 so far, 31 to go) also face much easier schedules of opposing pass defenses the rest of the way. 1:54 pm ET, College football bowl odds, picks, computer sims, 2022-23 bowl confidence pool picks, predictions, Top bowl confidence pool picks, predictions for 2022-23, USC QB Caleb Williams wins 2022 Heisman Trophy, Eli Drinkwitz trolls Kansas over NCAA investigation, 2022 CFP odds: Georgia, Michigan open as favorites, USC's Caleb Williams wins 2022 Heisman Trophy, Stanford hires Sacramento State coach Troy Taylor, Bobby Petrino emerging as candidate for TAMU OC job, Michigan mourns death of honoree Dametrius Walker, Report: WAC, ASUN merge in attempt to form FBS league, 2022 awards: USC's Caleb Williams shines as big winner, Rueben Owens, No. For Weeks 12-17, the average pass defense faced by the Chargers allows 14.3% DVOA. The Raiders move up one spot to 26th but the Broncos drop three spots from 22nd to 25th. The Losee project would Baker Mayfield delivered a performance for the ages on Thursday, two days after he joined the Los Angeles Rams. Find out why he likes the Bucs and 49ers to cover, plus what his leans are on the Bills-Chiefs and Bengals-Titans spreads. No-vig odds below via DraftKings Sportsbook. As such, they have been given long playoff odds by Bookmaker.EU. 1? That moves the 49ers up five spots from 11th to sixth this week. (DAVE ratings are explained here.) In fact, the Cowboys are now No. GB is 17th in pass VOA, and 13 in rush VOA. Their overall playoff chances dipped 2.5 percent, but they're still in very good shape according to the Football Outsiders table: Playoffs: 93.4 percent Division: 76.6 percent Wild Card:. (Take out their defense from that game, and the 49ers drop slightly from seventh to eighth.) Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. The Patriots moved up to first in defense and overall improved by nearly five percentage points of DVOA, although that only means one place in the rankings from 12th to 11th. Sitting at 5-7 on the season with the . It's Trading Places Week at the top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, with a . Yet their schedule of pass defenses gets even easier the rest of the way -- if we don't include their Week 18 game with Denver. For the rest of the season, the Chargers face the easiest remaining schedule of opposing offenses! ), In reply to Got to love FO (not being by BlueStarDude. College Football Week Bowl Game Odds, Opening Lines Friday, December 16, 2022 HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl UAB vs Miami University Fiu First Guess: UAB -10.5 Actual Line: UAB -11.5 Duluth Trading Cure Bowl Troy vs UTSA Fiu First Guess: UTSA -2.5 Actual Line: Troy -2.5 Saturday, December 17, 2022 Wasabi Fenway Bowl Louisville vs Cincinnati There's a chance they could overtake the Eagles for the NFC East lead and the No. QBR takes that out, while DVOA/DYAR does not. Yikes. The Wolverines and Bulldogs are undefeated, while the Horned Frogs and Buckeyes each have a loss. It would be so funny if they inverted their start: losing games but winning by DVOA, gradually improving their DVOA as the losses pile up until they're like 14th with a 9-8 record. So far, the Texans' schedule of opposing offenses has ranked 26th. FiveThirtyEight decided after Week 13 that Minnesota was the eighth-best team in football with the second most-likely odds to reach the playoffs. The schedule of the toughest run defenses and 3rd toughest pass defenses was way harder than I thought and the psychology of players may have lead to some snowballing effects. 1 Georgia (-7) vs. No. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Bring the adjustments in and that jumps to 16th and 5th and thus 9th overall. DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with weighted DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. Get FO+ Already a subscriber? The timing has been off a lot too, where Rodgers is throwing where he thinks the open receiver should be based on the play and how the defense redacted (I.e. They should have an answer for the Horned Frogs from both angles through the air and ground. 4 Ohio State No. 2 Michigan (-9.5) vs. No. The Bucs' chances of the playoffs fell 15 percent after losing to the Crows and seeing the Dixie Chicks win. The Patriots outgained the Jets on average 5.0 yards per play to 2.1 yards per play. College Football Playoff odds No. Here are the division odds from Football Outsiders: 49ers: 51.2 percent Rams: 25.8 percent Seahawks: 20.1 percent Cardinals: 2.9 percent If they get healthy down the stretch the 49ers are the. The Christmas Eve matchup between these teams takes place in Dallas, so the NFC East race isn't over yet. TCU vs. Michigan Prediction: 35-20 Michigan Wolverines. All Rights Reserved.
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