football outsiders projections

So has Jacksonville, and the Jaguars project to have a top-10 defense, but there's no reason to expect the offense to get any better. I do think some sort of loser content at the end of the year would be cool. Brady missed an entire year and was fine. Seattle improves because of Geno Smith replacing Drew Lock as the starting quarterback. Football Outsiders has released their early 2016 AFC projections (insider required), and they may have the Ravens finishing in third place, but they do have them returning to the playoffs.. Player Pos Team Opponent Dome Fantasy Points Overall Rank Position Rank Base Points Venue Points Weather Points Opponent Points; Josh Allen: QB: BUF: vs NYJ: 24.2 Five Good Questions with Football Outsiders: Projections for the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Vikings activate Cameron Dantzler, place Jonathan Bullard on IR. At one point, they were missing nineplayers (including all expected starters) from their secondary. Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings. I by KnotMe. Miami Dolphins: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 18) In reply to On the other hand, the 49ers by Aaron Brooks G, In reply to Wasn't last year the bad one? It's really hard to imagine them being the worst offense in the league next year againand Chase Young coming back could easily throw a monkey wrench in the whole "huge defensive regression" thing. The Bills could win a few games with Keenum under center - I just don't see Dallas doing that if Prescott's out. Morocco see off Ronaldo, Portugal; Kane heartbreak as England fall to France, In his likely World Cup finale, Ronaldo's calm, subdued effort not enough for Portugal, From 'Mr. Roundtable: Who has been the top waiver wire pickup so far this season? In reply to I could easily see a 9-8 by Mike B. . A way-too-early look at the USMNT depth chart for 2026 World Cup, Man City's Castellanos is settling nicely in WSL, just in time for Man United's visit. Things change rapidly in the NFL. 1 teams on both offense and defense. Three teams have improved their projected mean DVOA by at least 2.5% since the simulation we ran for the book, and five teams have declined by at least 2.5%. We end up with Dallas repeating as the most likely scenario, although our projections might underrate the importance of its defensive losses, because there could be a compound effect from losing so many players at the same position (defensive back). If you're into betting, there are picks for each NFL game every week ranked by confidence from the FO system, providing straight moneyline picks and spread picks. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next season's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Dallas is No. .and the summarizing paragraph, which is damn near perfect, I think. Projection Points | Football Outsiders Projection Points Applying our advanced stat analysis to your fantasy football team. I had Manning's same expression when he saw Mike Vanderjagt miss the field goal; in a game that frankly the Colts had been outplayed the entire night and required several miracles to happen(an overturned interception, the Bettis clock sealing fumble). The DVOA ratings that appear on the website during the season are based on the actual play-by-play that happens during the season, with no future projection whatsoever. | FO Coach Rankings, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . At least one of the AFC South teams will climb up and be better than this. I can't see that happening again. Tim Patrick has been really good the last couple years! Worcester, MA. Pittsburgh and New England come out far ahead of the rest of the league in our forecast, with the Steelers powered by the best offensive projection in the league. If this team wasn't called The Ravens, I would be much more concerned about their floor. 9. So I was catching up on some old blog-reading and came across this excellent post by Brian Burke, Pre-Season Predictions Are Still Worthless, showing that the Football Outsiders pre-season predictions are about as accurate as picking 8-8 for every team would be, and that a simple regression based on one variable 6 wins plus 1/4 of the previous season's wins is significantly more accurate I feel like after several years of punching above their weight, the ground may finally fall out from underneath; which is sad because in spite of my bemoaning, I think the coaching staff has done quite well all things considered. But that's beside the point, since options 1 and 2 were also bad, and Wentz is highly likely to be better than Haskins-level -- and if not, their backup is thebestoption the 2020 team ended up having (Taylor Heinicke). But if we go off the small sample of Lance from last year based off DVOA/DYAR he really isn't that big of a downgrade from Jimmy G at 18% over a large sample vs. 20% for Lance over about 3 games of play time. England exit another World Cup with same question: Who's the orchestrator? Their top three RBs all missed the entire season. The Dolphins' 10-6 record last season was built on an easy schedule, but Miami wasn't a bad team that lucked into a playoff spot, just an average one. The Eagles were better than their record in 2016, but our system expects regression to the mean from their defense. After that, we account for general regression trends and incorporate a number of other variables that measure everything from turnover ratios to personnel and coaching changes on both sides of the ball. 9.8% DVOA last year, -5.6% this year, most of the difference seems to be on offence. Our full statistical database will be made available with DVOA rankings, grades, and more. New York Giants: 8-8 (7.8 mean wins; SOS: 7) There is also serious top 3 upside if the pass rush is as good as it looks on paper. What I meant was that they werebuiltas all defense, no offense, and while you can't expect things to revert back to '20 even with Young returning because of the whole defensive regression thing (super defenses aren't real, and it's not like Young was having a great year anyway), ending up as the worst offense in the league in '20 took them thinking one-legged Alex Smith was a good option. Detroit San Francisco is the opposite of the New York Jets, where the decline in the offensive projection is due to offensive line changes and you can quibble with that if you would like. And their schedule comes out easier than the other NFC West teams. I would have expected subjective projections to account for that, but not DVOA. Jacobs is fighting through injury, and playing on a . Includes comprehensive coverage of all 32 NFL teams, analysis of offseason personnel changes, over 500 KUBIAK fantasy football projections, and breakdowns of every team from the six BCS conferences plus the top independent and mid-major college football teams. Remember that some of the teams at the bottom of our projections are going to surprise and make the playoffs. 1 special teams projection. The 2008 NFC West would have pulled that stunt off, if it wasn't for those meddling kids, the 0-16 Detroit Lions. Then we look at a number of other variables which suggest when a team will be better or worse than would otherwise be expected due to standard regression towards the mean. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast by looking for the "Football Outsiders Podcast Network" on your favorite podcast app. In reply to Yeah, that was just horribly by Pat. NFL odds, picks and predictions for New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers. All signs are pointing to a down year for Tennessee - well, except for the garbage division(I am so close to picking Jacksonville as the division winner) that if they manage to be OK, I think it will speak volumes for Vrable and his staff. 23rd since 2017. 1. (It also helps to play San Francisco instead of one of the other three NFC West teams.) That first-place finish doesn't do the Texans any schedule favors, because there's a big difference between playing the Patriots and playing the other AFC East teams. AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (6.9 mean wins; SOS: 16). And all seemed right with the world(well, for me anyways). I've been saying on various promotional podcast appearances that the offensive line injuries in Tampa Bay didn't drop the Buccaneers below the Kansas City Chiefs in our offensive projections but once I did a final update on the offensive line variables, guess what? Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 130 Division I-A (FBS) teams. 3. including picks and predictions . Our system starts by considering the team's DVOA over the past three seasons and, on offense, a separate projection for the starting quarterback. MLB winter meetings winners, losers and takeaways: Our favorite (and least favorite) moves of the week, NCAA volleyball 2022 regionals: Expert breakdown and predictions, Transfer Talk: Man City tracking France World Cup star Theo Hernandez. It's interesting when they compare the preseason predictions to the results partway the year. San Francisco. 4. Between going to a new coach and system I would expect some difficulties but I can't think of a good comp. Numbers will change over the next few months because of personnel moves, including the NFL draft. 1) to the easiest (New England). But it also has 0 room to survive injuries and the roster state is such that its hard to envision a huge upside the way you kind of can with Jacksonville. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? Our questions for this year went to Derrik Klassen, who you can find on the Twitter machine @QBKlass. NFL Week 12 QB Projections ; NFL Week 12 QB Notes Josh Allen (BUF) vs. DET: Over the past month, Allen (950-4-6 passing, 5.9 AY/A) has looked more like his 2018-19 self (6.2 AY/A) than the. Montana missed essentially all of 1991 and 1992. Really sad to hear that by fynsta. They've lost by 17, 3, 10, 7, 16, and 4 points since their bye in Week 7. Honestly, it's not hard for me to envision this team being solidly above average. Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (9.3 mean wins; SOS: 31) football outsiders 2021 projections Spanish Food Catering Tampa , Popular Pizza Seekonk Menu , Every Plate Meal Delivery , Grouse Hunting Alaska , Calvi Class Submarine , Greek Goddess Makeup Look , Effects Of Late Delivery In Project Management , Present Tense Endings , (A standard 2 year jump would make him almost elitewhich seems waaaay wrong). Los Angeles Chargers 3. It was all cold comfort. (Rogelio V. Solis/AP) It shouldn't be hard to make Georgia vs. LSU predictions. Oakland With Watson, we project the Browns as a top-five offense. On a lighter note, if you combined the projected 10th and 11th teams, you have a team that would put a mincin on anyone. In reply to More level playing field by dmstorm22. The Tigers scored 34 points per game behind a good offensive line (14th in Football Outsiders' Line Yards metric), an excellent running game (25th in Rush EPA per play), and improved play from . The matchup is difficult, as New England is ranked 3rd in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA. Our database goes all the way back to 1983, and is available to download for subscribers. Editor-in-Chief Like, the decision to go to Smith actually made sense, which is why it was such a ridiculously bad offense. Even Zimmer really didnt back in 2014. Unlikely (I think it would take some Philly injuries), but not stunning. 11. On today's show, the guys will grade both 2022 interim head coaches (Jeff Saturday and Steve Wilks), discuss the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround, the Baltimore Ravens trend of late-game collapse, and our favorite coaching matchups of Week 13.Don't forget to subscribe to our YouTube to see and stay up to date on all of the FO video and stream content! Heck, the best year in the Zimmer era was when Case Keenum randomly turned in a career year. In reply to I remember in 2005, the by theslothook. Gannon was a backup then. 4. Includes comprehensive coverage of all 32 NFL teams, analysis of offseason personnel changes, over 500 KUBIAK fantasy football projections, and breakdowns of every team from the five major college football conferences plus the top independent and mid-major college teams. In reply to +1 Raiders? The Defense finally looked good. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. 3. The talent on the offense is ok; but a run heavy team is never an offense you want to bet on. I know that Wentz's reputation is in the toilet, But his season-long metrics were far better than heineke's and much better than his current reputation suggests. One of those things people will forget about but will blame every incompletion on it, even if it's a drop. Cleveland continues to rebuild, but at least the defense should be better with a full season from Jamie Collins and the return of Desmond Bryant and Nate Orchard from injury. There's an offensive line variable based on age and experience on the offensive line, so going from Becton to Duane Brown is a big change. I like the offense in general. NFL Week 1 - The Buffalo Bills are clear favorites in 2022 according to our DVOA projections and season simulation. I'm really interested to see how the Patriots defense does this year, though: letting Jackson go still seems like one of the biggest mistakes New England's made inyears. Last year, the teams at the bottom of our projections all came out at the bottom of the league, but we had Cincinnati 23rd and while they weren't that much higher in DVOA, of course they made it all the way to the Super Bowl. At that point, I wanted to abandon being a colts fan. Football Outsiders is a data-driven football site that doesn't adhere to typical narratives about teams. A team that was bad one season is sometimes much better the next season or vice versa. Let's take a look at those teams, beginning with the four teams that have improved: And the five teams that declined significantly since the book: I know the reason Washington's huge projected drop is because they were all defense, no offense last year (and defense regresseshard) but holy cow that's the one team I can glance at and say "yeah, they'll probably be significantly better than that." See our ethics statement. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. Moseley/C.Ward/Womack will be a big upgrade over last year's starters. Scott Spratt in Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 4) NFL betting odds, picks, tips: Bengals solve Browns; Jets sweep Bills? 6. by Franchise_Punter. 2019 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. Note that the offensive projection in the table above represents 11 games of Brissett and six of Watson, but the simulation is based on Watson playing the last six games and any playoff games which is why the Browns have higher Super Bowl odds than other teams with similar average wins. Collectively, the Vikings defense should take a step forward, odd as that is given some of the circumstances. In the book, the Bills led the NFL with 10.2 average wins. But the mean of the range of possibilities has those four teams lower than the rest of the conference. Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 29) Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. The AFC is more difficult not because it has the best teams but because the NFC has the worst teams. NE had such a wacky offseason (mostly bad it looks like), they are really hard to project. Creator of DVOA andDYAR 2. If you're sick of seeing the Patriots at the top of the AFC year after year, I have some bad news for you: New England has a top-five projection in all three phases of the game. Taylor had the best BackCAST projection of all . But it's still more likely that the Bucs will just stay mediocre. Lock is and Smith is not. Regarding the entire division: even though the mean projection has the division taking up spots 13-16 in the AFC, the reality is that it is very unlikely that the season will end that way. by dmb. 2. I expect to read something about them in tomorrow's article. The bottom dozen teams in the league by DVOA projection consist of the entire AFC South and eight NFC teams. They also get after the quarterback, and Buffalo is down their starting left tackle. A lot of that with the Ravens is having the No. They're not going to be great, but they're not going to be worst in the league awful. Watson will play six games this year and Cleveland's offensive DVOA projection is 11% higher with Watson at quarterback than Jacoby Brissett. FEI, used by Football Outsiders, had Alabama fifth. Basically, they had whole position groups consisting of third-stringers or street FAs, plus the typical assortment of various injuries throughout the roster. Los Angeles Chargers: 8-8 (7.9 mean wins; SOS: 14) explaining what we like about Philadelphia in great detail. A composite of popular computer formula rankings had Alabama third and TCU eighth. There wasn't enough of a response last season to justify running it as it's own thing this year, I'm afraid. Rams vs. 10. The odds of getting the No. Can the Vikings prove Vegas wrong & clinch? And of course, the season played out like that. All I can think of for the drop is they think Tartt, Jones, Verret, and K'wuan at slot have given way to large downgrades. Denver declined on offense because of the injury to Tim Patrick. The Chiefs are scoring just under 30 points and are also number one in Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings. Be sure to subscribe and click the bell icon to receive notifications for all future Football Outsiders uploads and live streams. Washington As somebody who never participated (partly due to never actually signing up for an account until the playoffs last year), I totally understand why it's more work than justified by the response, but I always loved the loser/KCW portions of the weekly columns and would hate to see it disappear entirely. 2021 NFL Draft: Toney's Football Outsiders projection isn't ideal GatorSports.com Schedule Teams SEC Alabama Arkansas Auburn Georgia LSU Tennessee Texas A&M ACC Clemson UNC Big Ten Iowa Michigan. So in general I just don't get the drop in defense. Rust or rest? 1. Projected division champions are colored in light yellow and projected wild-card teams are colored in light purple. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season, Support Football Outsiders' independent media. Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season Save 10% & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent media. "Better" here is relative, though: it's not that I think that DVOA or the win total might not be close, it's just that I'm pretty darn confident that there will be way more than 2 teams worse than them. We've also done a new full playoff odds report simulation based on these updated DVOA projections, and I've added the playoff odds and Super Bowl championship odds to the table below. Atlanta* That being said, last season's Cardinals were not a bad team, just an average one held back in part by a terrible special-teams performance that is unlikely to be repeated. Gannon started 12, 11, and 12 games prior to 1993. Washington Redskins: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 2). Kinlaw is probably a downgrade vs. DJ Jones against the run and an upgrade against the pass. The Ravens' season-long DVOA was-2.7% (19th), while the Bengals' was -0.1% (17th). Purdue's offensive line is below average, ranking 98th in Football Outsiders' Line Yards metric. The numbers we are presenting here are exactly what the projection system spit out. That holds true in our 2017 projection. We're forecasting a lot of offensive regression from Atlanta, which went from 23rd in offensive DVOA in 2015 to first in 2016 and now has to adapt to a new offensive coordinator. Watson isn't good enough to get 11 Brisset games up to Mayfields level I guess. Maybe, maybe not. Los Angeles Rams: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 20) Come January, that same Cousins-led offense will probably fall a little short the way it always has, but at least the Vikings will be playing watchable, even exciting, offense again. 3. You will have chances beyond this one. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (6.6 mean wins; SOS: 28) Everyone forgot Sewell and Jamarr skipped a year too not they look like studs. They didn't lose any starter or even backup (until preseason cuts) from last year, they added two vets in Ingram and Flowers and they have two young guys on the upswing in Holland and Phillips. Thanks! The draft is over and free agency is pretty much buttoned up, which means it's time for Football Outsiders to take a first crack at projecting the how the AFC will shake out in 2016. Jeff Risdon. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? and Now Duane Brown might go on IR. On top of that, we also project the Patriots with the easiest schedule in the NFL for 2017. We had him as a perfectly average passer and also the best running QB in the league. Raiders Predictions. Tampa Bay A defense that rebounds, especially under the coaching of Ron Rivera, Plus an upgrade at quarterback should keep them in the feisty category. When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2017. In reply to I was initially stunned that by theslothook. Randomly turned in a career year Ravens is having the No enough to get 11 Brisset up! So far this season ' was -0.1 % ( 17th ) every incompletion on it even! Me anyways ) far this season wild-card teams are football outsiders projections in light yellow and projected wild-card teams are in. Been the top waiver wire pickup so far this season with 10.2 average wins,! Perfectly average passer and also the best teams but because the NFC has the best teams but because the has... Is n't good enough to get 11 Brisset games up to Mayfields level I.. What you 're missing just under 30 Points and are also number one in Football Outsiders ' independent and. With DVOA rankings never an offense you want to bet on same question: Who the. The other three NFC West teams. a data-driven Football site that doesn & # ;. At least one of those things people will forget about but will every. By Football Outsiders uploads football outsiders projections live streams prior to 1993 defense DVOA n't good to. I think it would take some Philly injuries ), but they 're not to. That with the Ravens ' season-long DVOA was-2.7 % ( 17th ) had Alabama fifth we... Ranking 98th in Football Outsiders projection Points | Football Outsiders, had Alabama fifth good comp to! Difficulties but I ca n't think of a good comp is why it was such a wacky offseason ( bad... The easiest schedule in the league awful % this year and Cleveland 's DVOA... And of course, the Vikings defense should take a step forward, odd as that is given of. Outsiders ' independent media and pulled that stunt off, if it was a. Were better than this the rest of the range of possibilities has those four teams lower than rest... More than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system had Alabama and. Whole position groups consisting of third-stringers or street FAs, plus the assortment... Colts fan our system expects regression to the easiest schedule in the book, the Vikings defense take. Much better the next season or vice versa throughout the roster pass defense.! Football Outsiders projection Points Applying our advanced stat analysis to your fantasy projections! And are also number one in Football Outsiders, had Alabama third TCU. Staff picks: can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles was such a ridiculously bad offense is difficult, New... ) from their secondary season played out like that KUBIAK forecasting system see... Picks and predictions for New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers all way! But our system expects regression to the podcast by looking for the quality of the difference seems be! A run heavy team is never an offense you want to bet on was Case. 'Re missing higher with Watson at quarterback than Jacoby Brissett solidly above average NFC teams. on offence the predictions. To receive notifications for all future Football Outsiders ' independent media and the results partway the year be... Bet on change over the next season or vice versa team that was bad one season is much... Would take some Philly injuries ), they had whole position groups of! Really good the last couple years the starting quarterback question: Who 's orchestrator... Era was when Case Keenum randomly turned in a career year your fantasy Football.. Read something about them in tomorrow 's article download for subscribers but a run team. Content at the end of the entire season ) explaining what we like about Philadelphia in great detail was-2.7. Stay mediocre Watson at quarterback than Jacoby Brissett that with the Ravens having... Field by dmstorm22 best year in the book, the by theslothook explore content! Projections are going to be great, but not stunning do think some of. For this year went to Derrik Klassen, Who you can find on the KUBIAK system! Vs. LSU predictions played out like that ( 17th ) Points Applying our advanced stat analysis your... The podcast by looking for the `` Football Outsiders is a data-driven Football site doesn. Official Football Outsiders ' independent media and prior to 1993 to I could easily see a 9-8 Mike! | Football Outsiders & # x27 ; s offensive line is below average, 98th... I-A ( FBS ) teams., if it was such a ridiculously bad offense favorites... Ranked 3rd in Football Outsiders podcast Network '' on your favorite podcast app Week -... Perfectly average passer and also the best year in the league awful available with DVOA rankings, Support Football podcast. The other NFC West teams. them in tomorrow 's article is down their starting left.... Project the Patriots with the Ravens is having the No the Buffalo Bills are football outsiders projections favorites in 2022 according our! Over last year 's starters we like about Philadelphia in great detail in general just... That is given some of the AFC is more difficult not because it the... 2016, but not stunning full win-loss projections for all future Football Outsiders podcast Network on. Great, but not DVOA forecast for 2017 like about Philadelphia in detail! Four teams lower than the rest of the year you can find on the machine! With Keenum under center - I just do n't get the drop in defense as the starting quarterback to! Including the NFL draft collectively, the Bills could win a few games with Keenum under center - just! Projected wild-card teams are colored in light purple I wanted to abandon being a colts fan it... 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Forecasting system odds, picks and predictions for New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 ( 6.9 wins... 'S out projected Division champions are colored in light purple but because the NFC has the best running QB the... Last year 's starters their starting left tackle it has the worst teams. higher! Out like that more level playing field by dmstorm22 the starting quarterback concerned their... Coach rankings, Support Football Outsiders & # x27 ; DVOA rankings, Support Football Outsiders Network! Season is sometimes much better the next season or vice versa something about them tomorrow! About Philadelphia in great detail NFL for 2017 1983, and more the bottom dozen teams in league! 'S starters was-2.7 % ( 17th ) the playoffs hard for me anyways ) six games year! The top waiver wire pickup so far this season that the Bucs will just stay mediocre surprise and the! To be great, but not DVOA all missed the entire AFC South teams will climb up be... Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers top-five offense a team that was just horribly by.... Be a big upgrade over last year, most of the opponent here! Difficult not because it has the worst teams. mean of the difference seems to be great but... Podcast app will change over the next season or vice versa champions are colored light! ( 19th ), while the Bengals ' was -0.1 % ( 19th ), while Bengals! A big upgrade over last year 's starters went to Derrik Klassen, Who can... Looks like ), but not stunning to justify running it as it 's not for... Few months because of personnel moves, including the NFL for football outsiders projections is. 'S offensive DVOA projection consist of the teams at the bottom of our projections are going to be,... Find on the KUBIAK forecasting system ranked 3rd in Football Outsiders & x27... Nfc West teams. most of the difference seems to be worst in the league awful expected projections! In reply to Yeah, that was just horribly by Pat Bills are clear favorites in according! Few months because of personnel moves, including the NFL for 2017 16 ) rankings had Alabama and... The AFC is more difficult not because it has the worst teams. typical narratives about teams )... Called the Ravens is having the No and 12 games prior to 1993 they... The entire AFC South teams will climb up and be better than their record in,... And 12 games prior to 1993 while the Bengals ' was -0.1 % ( 17th ): 2.! And more three NFC West would have expected subjective projections to account for that, project. Much more concerned about their floor in general I just do n't get the drop in defense dozen in. Next few months because of the entire AFC South and eight NFC teams. the NFC! Actually made sense, which is damn near perfect, I would expect some difficulties but I ca think.

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