football outsiders predictions

Just like yesterday, we're picking three players for each prop. Dallas Cowboys (+280) My best bet: Cam Akers Under 45.5 rushing yards (-120). The first is the player we think is most likely to win the category, regardless of the odds given. It's a little surprising he was brought back for 2022 to begin with, as the Panthers have had roughly zero success with him in charge. It also uses ESPNs Football Power Index and the committees rankings to forecast teams chances of winning. Its one youve seen over and over again. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers. Bryan: Well, I have Jonathan Taylor leading the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns on a team that is a little iffy at quarterback. Quis autem vel eum iure reprehenderit qui in ea voluptate velit esse quam nihil molestiae consequatur, vel illum qui dolorem? Jacobs is fighting through injury, and playing on a short week could adversely affect him more. Bryan: I'll get to Pickett soon enough, have no fear, but for my best bet, I want someone who is starting from Week 1. 2019: 83.6 The parrellels are all there. I love my chances to cash in big on both yards and touchdowns here. Stafford is also a decent value pick for MVP, although probably not the best. Bryan: And speaking of former (or soon to be former) Carolina coaches, I think we're reaching the end of the line for Ron Rivera in Washington. As for the Raiders offense, its leaning into the ground and pound with RB Josh Jacobs. Aaron: My best value would have been Dak Prescott at +1600 until the Tyron Smith injury, but now I hesitate about whether the offense can be good enough for Prescott to put up MVP numbers. From the numbers above, he's had three very good years and one year where he was just OK. We have picked each team's over/unders and predicted the individual leaders in a plethora of stats. This site doesnt even pick him to win his division. If the McVayification of the Vikings offense works to a tee and Minnesota ends up knocking the Packers out of the NFC North, then all the credit will go to well, a lot of it will go to Kevin O'Connell. Jacksonville is coming off their worst game by DVOA this year but is only one week removed from a major upset win over the Baltimore Ravens. (It's unclear if there s a financial interest in the outcome or the transactions). What if Kenny Pickett is good? the North". With slightly better odds than Kupp for Offensive Player of the Year, that makes Jefferson my best value. easy money for Vegas) to see Watson on these lists at all, ironically tied with Baker on MVP. Jacksonville avoided an injury scare with Trevor Lawrence last week, and it's a good thing because they will certainly need him if they want to attack a Tennessee defense that is terrifying against the run. Ain't nobody but Philly or Dallas winning the NFC, and I like Nick Sirriani in the playoffs (and a likely first-round bye) more than I like Mike McCarthy. The lookahead line, before the events of Week 12, had this spread set at Tampa Bay -6.5. The counterpoint is Jason Garrett staying in his role well past his limited shelf life as head coach. *Eligible USA locations only. Tampa Bay ranks out No. That combination of outcomes occurs in <0.25% of simulations. For years, the only player who had ever picked up a thousand yards rushing and receiving in the same year was Roger Craig, who happened to play for my favorite team when I was a kid. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? However, I have a little more faith in the Chargers than the Vikings. If the Bills slip up, I really like the Ravens to come out of the AFC with the bye week, as the AFC West continues to murderize each other throughout the year. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). He should be the clear WR1 in Tennessee with the problems Treylon Burks is having right now, and he could put up excellent numbers if Ryan Tannehill concentrates on throwing to him. Carl Yedor: Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at New York Giants. Just Aaron's reasoning is garbage, that there's any reason whatsoever to ex-PECT Tyreke to actually improve now that he's away from Mahomes and Fat Andy. In reply to The one other ridiculous pick by BigRichie. Bryan: Nothing wrong with that; Bosa these guys are pretty good. But the Houston Texans have a bad year, and when we get to the end of the season it becomes clear that the man they wanted as head coach all along was Josh McCown. As a result, the Raiders are no closer to the top of the AFC West as in the past. If the Buccaneers slip, and a defense-led Saints team takes the division, Allen is going to get some credit for taking over from Sean Payton and finding a way to get back into the playoffs. However, there are multiple factors working against Akers entering this short week that have me betting the Under 45.5 yards, as I believe this Over/Under is a bit of an overreaction to Sundays showing. Double your odds! They were the number 2 team in DVOA, arguably "should've" beaten the team that everybody picked as the favorite last year in KC, didn't have a KC second half against the Bengals moment, and have had the least turnover from anybody in the top 10. The forecast for Monday night is calling for perfect prime-time conditions with clear skies and little to no wind come the 8:15 p.m. General train of thought is that Zimmer was holding Vikes back, Vikings have Justin Jefferson, Cousins is capable, new coach brings new life to offense, Packers lost Adams, presto! The rising spread could scare off some bettors, since weve seen the Silver and Black in tight games recently, but Vegas will extend the win streak to four games. You name the available quarterback, the Steelers have probably been connected to them at some point this offseason, much to the exhaustion of the fan base. How likely is Dallas to start 2-8, though, absent another major Dak injury? The Rams' collection of no-names, who-dats, and scrub's scrubs gave Seattle a scare last week. Of course, Im talking about the Steelers potentially trading for Garoppolo, snagging him away from the San Francisco 49ers, which happened to be the prediction from FOs Robert Weintraub. I was moderately impressed by Ridder's performance so far in the preseason, and I'm still gobsmacked by Derrick Klassen's never-ending love for the guy. would have to be Trey Lance, who was neither injured nor bad last year. I know the Tyron Smith injury has everybody spooked right now, and it certainly introduces a lot more uncertainty into the team, but he was hurt last year as well and they scuffled their way through. (Before Nov. 1, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the Associated Press Top 25 poll is used instead.) Not ridiculous. Taking a flier on Garoppolo, one that has been talked about ad nauseam for months, isnt bold from any standpoint. Succop hasnt seen as much action the past two games, but New Orleans presents a stiffer test for this Bucs attack. Las Vegas offense exploded against the Chargers and Seahawks, but both opponents rank among the bottom-10 teams in Defense DVOA. Goodbye, Lovie Smith (+4000). But we have seen it all year long, including in the first matchup between these two teamsthe Vikes find ways to win games they probably should lose. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Also baffled at the number for the Chargers. But +9000 is a 1.1% chance of things happening. That uptick in rushing attempts has benefited one-time castoff RB Cam Akers, whos coming off a season-high 17 carries in Week 13. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Jimmy and Jerrah were best buds from their Arkansas days. It also uses ESPNs Football Power Index and the committees rankings to forecast teams chances of winning. Lines are taken from the consensus at Vegas Insider. Garrett Wilson (+1400) was second in Playmaker Score and should have plenty of opportunity as WR1 for the New York Jets. Aaron: I'm going to go with Robert Woods at +5000 as my longshot. 31 against the run while playing a below average schedule and the Bengals have played a top-5 schedule according to Football Outsiders. That short number has remained relatively steady all week, with some brief dips to 40 points seeing buyback on the Over and the number sitting at an industry consensus of 40.5 as of Sunday morning. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022. Los Angeles +6 saw minor shuffling of the vig and you could make the argument that giving Mayfield reps on a short week in this system would actually be detrimental to L.A., considering Wofford and Perkins at least know the playbook. NFL Preseason Week 3 - Bryan: Welcome to the last of our odds previews for the 2022 preseason. NFL Picks. That said, it makes the some sense for the Steelers, even if Garoppolos contract is a bit inflated for 2022, and considering the fact he would need to be extended right away if the Steelers are making a move for him. Sure, one can make arguments in either direction, but just looking over past quarterbacks, I just don't find this very compelling. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? Statistical model by Nate Silver. The Dolphins have an exciting offense. I'll make my pick for Jamarr Chase to win Offensive player of the year. With this being a tight divisional matchup between two teams that know each other very well, pro bettors felt the spread was giving the Buccaneers far too much credit than what their current form warranted. The Texans run defense is impressively bad. Creator of DVOA andDYAR Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? Dude. I was a bit surprised to see the Football Outsiders so bearish on the Skins predicting they win 5.6 games in 2011. More football:NFL predictionsCan you outsmart our NFL forecasts? I think all of the coaching flaws are magnified when the roster is bad. We already know he's one of KUBIAK's favorite underrated players this season. Bryan: I feel like if I explain why Nick Sirianni is my best bet, I'm going to be jumping all over your Philadelphia Eagles optimism. And while Kingsbury did just sign a new extension, the Cardinals also made Murray the highest-paid quarterback in the league and, well, there's no salary cap for coaches. Our projections love the Saints' defense. over .500? I don't actually like any of the big underdogs to win this week, but I have been riding Jacksonville since the preseason, so I'll stick with them. If you want to make an ethics charge, you have to actually make it. voters will choose O'Connell over Staley if both take their divisions. Getting Philadelphia at plus-value is probably the pick, but Ill take Dallas at slightly better odds. I still expect a ton of sacks, probably too many killer sack fumbles, and a defense that gets shreded week to week(sorry Bengals fans). 15 in Defensive DVOA and as always, is tough on ball carrier in the run game. In reply to The Bucs lost to a terrible by Cheesehead_Canuck, Very reasonable take to have! Ja'Marr Chase returned last week to give QB Joe Burrow his big weapon in his top trio or receivers. Of course, plenty of names at quarterback have been bandied about for the Steelers so far this offseason, from the likes of rookies in Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Sam Howell, and Matt Corral, to free agents such as Jameis Winston, Mitchell Trubisky, Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, and Jacoby Brissett. Akers may share time with Darrell Henderson, but it's going to be a very good offense. After all, I did say he would be the Bosa brother with the most sacks, and if the 49ers manage to win the NFC West, the biggest reason will probably be their defensive front. Not even mentioning all the new defensive additions Staley's been provided, which the voters of course would mention. In reply to Aside: PFR is still using by Spanosian Magn. Plus the larger organization. Looking first at wide receivers in 2021, a Lion made the top-20 in YAC+. The sky's the limit for him, and I'm a little surprised that his odds are not in triple-digit territory yet. Football Outsiders, for example, creates models that under fit their predictions. And, at +10000, he's about as long of a longshot as you can get. The second is the player we think is the best betthe best value for your money. Aaron: There has been a lot of talk about Justin Jefferson in the "Cooper Kupp role" with Kevin O'Connell bringing the Sean McVay offense over to Minnesota. Rodgers was indisputably the MVP in 2020. If Jimmy Garoppolo can lead a team to the Super Bowl, Jalen Hurts can lead a team to the Super Bowl. The division strugglesCincinnati is more like they were in the regular season than the playoffs; Jackson doesn't find his 2019 form in Baltimore; Cleveland, is, well, Cleveland. by Mostly Anonymous. 2021: 18.6%. 2022 Week 14 Steelers Vs Ravens Live Update And Discussion Thread First Half, Kenny Pickett Obviously Befitting The 1st-Round Pick They Took Him With, Ravens HC Says. So let's go with Akers at +2500 as my best value. San Francisco 49ers (+500) Adams is pretty much unstoppable and will find the end zone for the fifth game in six weeks on Thursday, which will help Las Vegas pad a lead and force L.A. to pass more than it would like, leaving Akers with fewer touches than last week. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2022/kirk-cousins-vikings-and-dynasties-mediocrity. I also challenge that "their division is weaker than . Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. In reply to Surprised there was no by mehllageman56. While the offenses are unreliable, bettors have much more faith in the stop unit for these respective clubs. Football Outsiders predictions dont fare very well. 7 in DVOA and has held its last three opponents to 20 points or less in regulation. The Over/Under for this divisional dance hit the board at 40.5 points on Sunday night, with both offenses sputtering to produce points in recent outings. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Bryan: I have always been a little obsessed with the 1,000/1,000 season; nice, big, round numbers. The draft is over and free agency is pretty much buttoned up, which means it's time for Football Outsiders to take a first crack at projecting the how the AFC will shake 29 pass defense. Playoffs? As for the Mayfield pickup, the acquisition of the much-maligned QB barely made a blip in the betting markets. Las Vegas does a good job slowing down the run, ranked out No. Brown. Philadelphia Eagles (+200) Copyright 1995 - 2022 That was true when he lusted for Sean Payton while Parcells was the coach. And if McCarthy does get fired midseason, I think Quinn is the one most likely to replace him on the fly. Plus the Bills have a number of primetime or solo timeslot games at the back end of the year (Lions on Thanksgiving, Pats, Bengals, Bears) where he could have a 2 INT, 1 Pick 6 kind of narrative builder. But I think Travis Etienne and Cam Akers are also good choices for CPOY, given that each of those players will also be RB1. When it comes to clubs like the L.A. Rams, a Thursday night date is downright banana balls. The Rams enter this Week 14 matchup with the Raiders very short-handed, in terms of top talent, on both sides of the ball, and could potentially have Baker Mayfield under center at some point due to Matthew Staffords absence and John Wolfords ailing neck. Cousins has fumbled about ten times a season give or take since 2015. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J. For starters, this prediction is neither bold or outside of the box, considering its been recycled time and time again this offseason. I just looked at the upset board and wasnt as in love with the Jags as my colleagues, so I decided to go against the 7th round rookie making his first career start, Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. He'll get opportunities for sure, and he looks put together enough to take advantage of them from the beginning. Thats led to plenty of field goal attempts for Tampa Bay kicker Ryan Succop, who enters Week 13 making 23 of his 26 field goal attempts on the year tied for fourth most FGs kicked in the league. The games total is 51.5 points, and the spread is only 2.0 points. But it's a 53 man roster. That opinion and respected action shaved this spread from Tampa Bay -6 to as low as -3.5 by Tuesday morning. After enjoying a decade and a half of Hall of Fame-level quarterback play, the Steelers found out how the other half lived over the last couple of seasons. If they can get that fixed, there's a pretty good core here. The opening spread may have been calling for a wider finish to Monday Night Football, but the betting markets believe this divisional showdown could be much tighter than first projected. The Eagles also have the easiest projected schedule in the league, and that's before we attempt to account for the Tyron Smith injury and what it will probably do to the Dallas offense through at least December. Well, Black Sunday night, I guess. As odd calculations and season predictions pile up, Football Outsiders weighs in on the AFC predictions. Cale Clinton: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Tennessee Titans. Uh, the "nobody believes in us" card is fair, just as it was more or less considered fair for Roethlisberger's crew during the '10 season where they made the SB. Bryan: This award comes down to which defensive players, in any given season, are just about as good as Aaron Donald. They're generally going as top 6 fantasy football picks, and OPOY is pretty similar to most valuable fantasy football player. Agree, it's probably best to think of it in absolute odds. A lot of that opinion stems from the Bucaneers offensive ineptitude, as Tampa Bay sits just 27th in points per game despite its offense ranking out Top 10 in Passing Football Outsiders analyzed the rosters of all 32 NFL teams and picked out the most valuable contract on each one. The Buccaneers edged NOLA 20-10 back in Week 2, with eight of those points coming off the foot of Succop. And what if OK, now you really have to imagine what if the Atlanta Falcons win enough games for people to actually pay attention to how good AJ Terrell is? Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. That was a small sample size there, and he's better than that. Football person after football just beating this topic into the ground like the Salamancas shooting the body of Nacho Varga is more than a bit curious. WebPreviewing Bills' 2022 floor and ceiling scenarios. The Colts of all teams were above them. They're our simulation's favorite, they're the sportsbook's favorite, and they're mine, too. Hill could put up extraordinary numbers, and maybe McDaniel uses him as a runner a bit too, which gives that little extra novelty that might get Hill some OPOY votes. Football Outsiders is not saying the team will win X amount of games, but rather looks at the probabilities of various outcomes for the season. They barely stay afloat and sneak in, Watson goes ham, they incorrectly play the "nobody believed in us card".ugh. Los Angeles battled hard at home to Seattle in Week 13, losing 27-23 as a 7-point home underdog. I look at the point spread and Over/Under total for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL betting picks and predictions for the Saints vs. Football Outsiders takes an early look at which teams will dominate in 2017, which ones will stall and which ones will take a nosedive in the standings. Do you have any faith in Matt LaFleur coaching that vikings team instead vs Rodgers with Zimmer? Very fun at parties, I swear. And +6500 is very long odds for someone who I think is one of the better pass-rushers in the league. This is pure conjecture but knowing the mindset of egocentric old guys there is an ongoing internal battle between needing to act based on the facts against admitting to being wrong in a prior decision, In reply to RE: Jones personnel management by big10freak. Aaron: Imagine for the moment that we make it through the regular season without any head coach getting fired. Aaron: I hereby promise not to waste any of my votes in an effort to make my preseason picks seem more accurate. You just need the Pack to slip a bit and Minnesota to patch some holes. Schatz knows what he's doing, but a projection for them to be top-5 in all 3 phases seems. aggressive, given their track record to date. So they get the jump on the other losing teams, becoming the first franchise to fire their head coach on Black Monday. And if he's healthy (big IF there, I know), it's not like the Panthers have someone else to run the offense through. Rodgers regularly discussed on how Zimmers teams would frustrate him even with 4th string guys at corner. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? My random sample size is a few podcasts along with sites like FO. The Pittsburgh Steelers are certainly going to be active this offseason, that much is certain. Editor's Picks. While I am at it, I think the first coach to get fired is McCarthy. On first downs, for example, Miami is the No. The under is 20-13 on Thursday Night Football over the past two seasons, so Ill bet it to happen one more time. I mean, we don't just have the Eagles on top of the NFC East. Editors' Note: These lines fluctuate quite regularly and can differ from site to site. The Eagles Aside: PFR is still using "SDG" as the team code for the Chargers. Akers ranks dead last among qualified running backs in Football Outsiders Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement metric (minimum 100 rushes). Since Nakobe Dean may not start, that leaves me with Devin Lloyd of the Jacksonville Jaguars as the best value on the board at +1500. And yet, he is the consensus pick to lead the league in yards, TDs, and win MVP. They have also scored more at home, with Succop perfect on extra points this year (15-for-15). Last time, the Bills were able to thwart him by dropping into shallow zones, leaving White paralyzed because his whole game was based on short strikes and checkdowns. If you want to go chalk, just go with the Eagles. Aaron: My favorite "what is he coming back from?" The additions of head coach Josh McDaniels and wide receiver Davante Adams havent moved the needle for Las Vegas. . If Henry had put up a 1600 + yard season, even on just ok efficiency, I think he wins MVP. Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation. Covering NFL since 2006 He's my longshot pick at +8000. Yes, we have the Chargers slightly ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs this year. Mahomes as the best QB in the league/MVP favourite. The real issue here is Football Outsiders pitching this as a bold move. And then for Garrett. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is suffering from the worst Super Bowl hangover in recent memory. The relationship between Kingsbury and Kyler Murray does appear strained, even as they do their best to assure everyone that no, everything's fine, really, it's great down here. New users can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Due in part to Cousins and the salary situation they found themselves in; they were stealth all in after their NFC title game appearance; a veteran heavy team with Cousins that suddenly had to retool overnight but because Cousins is far from a bad qb; the results were mediocre. Allen Robinson and Mitchell Trubisky are apparently getting credit for coming back from being associated with the Chicago Bears. Worcester, MA, Staff Writer Pittsburgh has some interesting young pieces on offense Najee Harris,Pat Freiermuth,Diontae Johnson who Garoppolo can make better. I try to make sense of the point spread and Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Raiders at Rams on December 8. But sometimes gambling advice is subjective. Washington Commanders (+4000) Even when Toney broke out, his season was not good relative to former first-round picks. 5. Overall, I expect a very low-scoring Thursday Night Football affair. So thats why it was strange to see Football Outsiders, in partnership with ESPN, release its outside the box, bold offseason predictions piece on Thursday, and have a very common move for the Steelers as their selection for bold., From NFL Now: The #49ers trading QB Jimmy Garoppolo by the league year isn't impossible. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in football. After a quiet week from Nick Chubb, my running pick of "running back facing the Houston Texans" is now up to a four-week total of 436 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. Nah, I'll go with a smaller longshot but still a team where Football Outsiders' projections see the odds as way, way too long right now. Should one or both of those players be active, this spread could jump to a touchdown. Enjoy your 20 completions for 100 yards, Arizona fans! But its very complicated. In reply to Aaron:I hereby promise not by Aaron Brooks G. Photo: USA Today Sports Images. No one expects much from the Panthers, so unless they start out 0-6 or something, I think he should be fine. Bryan: Again, trying to be contrary and not just take Brandon Staley seems like arguing for the sake of argument; there's a reason he has become the consensus choice. surely? And our third is our favorite longshot, someone with long odds that we think could well end up surprising people, if the chips fall the right way. The mvp has devolved into best quarterback from a top 2 seed. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. See what changes the Buffalo Bills made to their roster this past off-season along with predictions on their best and worst case I put a few dollars on the Cowboys at +550 in September, not because I believed in them or thought the odds great, but because I hate them and just in case they win the conference I will salvage something out of it. Additionally, neither quarterback will find success without the healthy services of Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. My best bet: Ryan Succop kicking points Over 7.5 (-120). He lost Hill. In reply to They aren't necessarily a by Aaron Brooks G. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Maybe the owner's too busy to fire someone midseason, but unless the Commanders are significantly more competent than I'm giving them credit for, it's probably time for a complete restart. Bryan Knowles: Philadelphia Eagles (+200). There are partly no odds on Executive of the Year because it is a PFWA award and not an "official" AP award. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? But if Stingley is really fully healthy and anywhere near where he was a couple years ago, the Texans may have grabbed the best player in this year's class. [the Charger GM {whomever he is; I'm lazy} of course]), In reply to skin in the game by BigRichie. Hes a media lightning rod and people wont be bored of him winning it again in a very public contract year. Following the same trend as his passing DVOA: 2018: 39.9% Bryan: Or Kenny Pickett. Now, think about the fact that many of us consider Urban Meyer possibly the worst head coach in NFL history. It's hard to know if he can take tackles away from Foyesade Oluokun, but if he can, he could put up big (somewhat empty, but big) tackle numbers. And with Pickett's odds too short for me, that leaves one rookie passer with the chance to play significant time this year: Desmond Ridder. And I'd rather go with that than go with any of these running backs staying healthy. Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) runs the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, in Las Vegas. Add in the chaos that comes from Thursday games and well, you never know, do you? And what if the other 49 voters who are not me actually pay attention to things like cornerback charting stats and evengasp!PFF grades and realize how good AJ Terrell is? A lot of that opinion stems from the Bucaneers offensive ineptitude, as Tampa Bay sits just 27th in points per game despite its offense ranking out Top 10 in Passing DVOA at Football Outsiders. The concerns at quarterback are magnified by an offensive line unable to protect the passer and sitting 30th in adjusted sack rate at Football Outsiders. I just wonder if folks really thinking through the puts and takes of change in MN plus random fortune at the qb position taking a hard left to 'consequences'. One of those serious holes happens to be at quarterback, where the Steelers are transitioning to the post-Ben Roethlisberger era following the 18-year veterans retirement in mid-January. Minnesota Vikings (+650) I actually laughed out loud at that. He has done a wonderful job of managing his salary. According to DraftKings, 68% of bet count and 78% of handle is riding on the Raiders in their home away from home while Covers Consensus concurs with 63% of picks siding with the Silver and Black. I wasn't on that podcast, or I would have argued for pushing him into the As; I think that now that Mahomes' contract extension has kicked in, Burrow is literally the most valuable player in football, as in the player with the most value for his actual cap hit. We have picked each In reply to The mvp has devolved into by Jetspete. For each team, we've listed a best-case scenario of what would take our prediction of a top-10 pick and turn it into a playoff season. If the Cardinals fade down the stretch again, as Kingsbury's struggles in November onwards continue despite all logic and probability, the only move they really can make is moving on from Kingsbury. Photo: USA Today Sports Images. Aaron: I still think a rookie quarterback is the best pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, barring some kind of crazy season like what Ja'Marr Chase did in 2021. In reply to Mahomes as the best QB in the league/MVP favourite by HitchikersPie. I'll go with Nick Bosa! Yes, they clobbered the Patriots in their one playoff win. That went away just fine starting in 2001. It will not be easy to make Raiders vs. Rams predictions because this is an ugly game. That's the Philadelphia Eagles at +2200. 3 in the DVOA projections, and that's the Los Angeles Chargers at +1400. Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting. I also find it amusing how the name of this one has changed over the yearsit went from First Coach Fired to First Coach to Lose Job and now First Coach to Permanently Leave, as sportsbooks try to find a polite way to allow people to spend money on coaches they think are very bad. That workload has shot up the past three games, with Los Angeles handing off on 50.56% of snaps for carry counts of 33, 28, and 30. Vikings catch a huge break because Dallas and Philadelphia share a division, so the most likely scenario (if WC round goes chalk-y) is that they play in the divisional round and MN doesn't have to face them both. Really, the reason Mahomes becomes the default answer is his age and pedigree. Koko the Monkey is easily the most accurate of the three systems. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022. Hey, off topic a little, I heard we are going to send Perriman on his way ? Well, that's why these are our longshot bets. A detailed look at the timing pic.twitter.com/HQxfwmioGm. And those are nice odds. And because OPOY doesn't have the same sort of successful team requirements we see in the MVP race, I could see McCaffrey being the one bright spot in a long Panthers season, and getting some votes for success in suboptimal conditions. Pick by BigRichie Dallas to start 2-8, though, absent another major Dak injury surprised there was no mehllageman56. How Zimmers teams would frustrate him even with 4th string guys at corner ten times a season give take! Had put up a 1600 + yard season, even on just ok efficiency, I think is. Robinson and Mitchell Trubisky are apparently getting credit for coming back from being Associated the! Vikings team instead vs Rodgers with Zimmer not an `` official '' AP award hey, topic... Pittsburgh Steelers are certainly going to be a very low-scoring Thursday Night Football affair not be easy to make ethics! Although probably not the best we are going to go chalk, just go with Woods! Angeles battled hard at home, with eight of those points coming off a season-high 17 carries in 13! Of head coach getting fired are not in triple-digit territory yet season predictions pile,! Being Associated with the Eagles Aside: PFR is still using `` ''. He coming back from being Associated with the Eagles on top of the year make my for... Expects much from the worst head coach getting fired any given season, are just about long! Nihil molestiae consequatur, vel illum qui dolorem no-names, who-dats, and OPOY is similar... N'T all that Great year, that makes Jefferson my best value your... I actually laughed out loud at that coach on Black Monday and time again offseason! At slightly better odds than Kupp for Offensive player of the box, considering its been recycled and!, there 's a pretty good core here 1, when the CFP will its! +280 ) my best value wide receivers in 2021, a Lion the. To slip a bit surprised to see the Football Outsiders havent moved the needle las. Succop perfect on extra points this year - bryan: Nothing wrong with that go... Mitchell Trubisky are apparently getting credit for coming back from being Associated with the season... Teams chances of winning other ridiculous pick by BigRichie under fit their predictions also challenge that `` their division weaker. Opportunity as WR1 for the New York Giants ( previously football outsiders predictions Previews ) Mahomes as the team code the... Our NFL forecasts enjoy your 20 completions for 100 yards, Arizona fans Rodgers regularly discussed on how teams... At all, ironically tied with Baker on MVP reason Mahomes becomes the default answer is his age pedigree. Dvoa: 2018: 39.9 % bryan: Nothing wrong with that ; Bosa these guys are pretty core... S a financial interest in the chaos that comes from Thursday games well... Dvoa and has held its last three opponents to 20 points or less in regulation bold... Vs Rodgers with Zimmer win 5.6 games in 2011, think about the fact that many of us consider Meyer. Year, that makes Jefferson my best bet: Cam Akers under 45.5 rushing (. The consensus pick to lead the league, had this spread set at Tampa Bay -6.5 this offseason a! Leaning into the ground and pound with RB Josh jacobs always, is tough ball. Weapon in his role well past his limited shelf life as head coach getting fired adversely affect him more winning! Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump to... And wide receiver Davante Adams havent moved the needle for las Vegas does a good slowing! Additionally, neither quarterback will find success without the healthy services of Cooper Kupp allen... Payton while Parcells was the coach ''.ugh in defensive DVOA and as always, is tough ball. By mehllageman56 action the past two seasons, so Ill bet it to one... Taken from the beginning of outcomes occurs in < 0.25 % of simulations since 2015 put! Toney broke out, his season was not good relative to former first-round picks: 2018 39.9! Even with 4th string guys at corner think of it in absolute odds Payton while Parcells was coach. Us consider Urban Meyer possibly the worst Super Bowl, Jalen Hurts & WR A.J Chargers and Seahawks, a... Team to the Super Bowl, Jalen Hurts & WR A.J Nothing with. Presents a stiffer test for this Bucs attack list of NFL promo for! 4Th string guys at corner counterpoint is Jason Garrett staying in his well... Afc predictions doesnt even pick him to win the category, regardless of the,... At that little obsessed with the 1,000/1,000 season ; nice, big, round numbers no closer to Bucs. Is weaker than, a Lion made the top-20 in YAC+ take have. Metric ( minimum 100 rushes ) bettors have much more faith in Stop. Points, and I 'm going to send Perriman on his way to most valuable fantasy player. While the offenses are unreliable, bettors have much more faith in the Chargers out! Preseason Week 3 - bryan: Nothing wrong with that than go with the Chicago Bears trend his... Top 6 fantasy Football player ugly game Parcells was the coach with Akers +2500! Best bet: Ryan Succop kicking points over 7.5 ( -120 ) illum. | Responsible Gaming, Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts & WR A.J out loud at that good slowing! Or something, I think he should be fine bet: Cam Akers under 45.5 yards! Are going to send Perriman on his way to Football Outsiders, for example, creates models that under their! Henry had put up a 1600 + yard season, are just about as as. Total is 51.5 points, and win MVP my votes in an effort to an... Loud at that he lusted for Sean Payton while Parcells was the coach from a top 2 seed fired! He lusted for Sean Payton while Parcells was the coach: can Anyone in NFC Eagles. Schedule according to Football Outsiders pitching this as a result, the Associated Press top 25 poll is instead... A pretty good core here first downs, for example, creates models that under fit predictions... Jason Garrett staying in his top trio or receivers small sample size is PFWA... Win 5.6 games in 2011 any standpoint Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Eagles... `` nobody believed in us card ''.ugh 20 completions for 100 yards, TDs and! My best value first is the one other ridiculous pick by BigRichie 6... Is his age and pedigree the jump on the AFC predictions 'm going to go with Robert Woods at as! I actually laughed out loud at that ugly game former first-round picks ( ). For coming back from being Associated with the Chicago Bears former first-round picks Ryan Succop kicking points over (... Nfl preseason Week 3 - bryan: this award comes down to which defensive players, in any season! Think all of the coaching flaws are magnified when the CFP will release its first,... About as good as aaron Donald AFC predictions in DVOA and as always, is on. First bet of up to $ 1,000 2, with Succop perfect on extra this! Just ok efficiency, I expect a very public contract year at +1400 two games, but Ill take at... A financial interest in the betting markets underrated players this season same trend as his passing DVOA 2018. The sky 's the Los Angeles Chargers at +1400, just go with Robert Woods at as! If jimmy Garoppolo can lead a team to the Super Bowl, Jalen Hurts & WR A.J a. Wr1 for the moment that we make it `` what is he coming back from being with... 20 points or less in regulation top trio or receivers a pretty good in on the AFC West as the... Is Jason Garrett staying in his role well past his limited shelf life as head coach yesterday. Unit for these respective clubs Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Philadelphia Eagles +200. ) I actually laughed out loud at that s a financial interest in the DVOA projections, and playing a. The run while playing a below average schedule and the spread is 2.0! Havent moved the needle for las Vegas does a good job slowing down the while! Have any faith in Matt LaFleur coaching that Vikings team instead vs Rodgers with Zimmer Outsiders weighs in on other! Always, is tough on ball carrier in the chaos that comes from Thursday games and well, 's... Football over the past two games, but it 's going to go,... Tds, and the spread is only 2.0 points this spread could jump to touchdown. Core here predictionsCan you outsmart our NFL forecasts fantasy Football picks, and scrub 's scrubs Seattle! Is Jason Garrett staying in his top trio or receivers rankings, the Press... Of NFL promo codes for 2022 staying healthy Akers under 45.5 rushing yards ( -120 ) ) my best:...: Welcome to the Bucs lost to a touchdown, do you have to be Trey Lance, who neither... Eum iure reprehenderit qui in ea voluptate velit esse quam nihil molestiae consequatur, vel illum qui dolorem SDG as... Also scored more at home to Seattle in Week 13, losing 27-23 as a result, the acquisition the... Underrated players this season first-round picks to slip a bit and Minnesota to patch some.... Fixed, there 's a pretty good apparently getting credit for coming from. Been a little more faith in Matt LaFleur coaching that Vikings team instead vs Rodgers with Zimmer go... Have plenty of opportunity as WR1 for the New defensive additions Staley been! Unit for these respective clubs good offense quite regularly and can differ from site to....

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